Amidst revised methodologies and technological advancements, the 2024/25 outlook for U.S. soybeans promises higher supplies, crush, exports, and ending stocks, with the soybean crop projected at 4.45 billion bushels. Additionally, the global oilseed outlook shows a surge in production, crush, exports, and ending stocks, driven by increased soybean production in key regions like South America and the United States.
Increased U.S. Soybean Outlook for 2024/25: Higher supplies, crush, exports, and ending stocks are forecasted compared to 2023/24, with the soybean crop projected at 4.45 billion bushels, up 285 million due to increased area and trend yield.
Revision in Soybean Planting Seed Methodology: Methodology for soybean planting seed revised back to 2001/02, reflecting changes in management practices and technology leading to lower seed use per acre over time.
Factors Driving U.S. Soybean Crush: Soybean crush for 2024/25 projected at 2.43 billion bushels, up 125 million, driven by higher demand for soybean oil as a biofuel feedstock and increased domestic soybean meal disappearance on the back of rising pork and poultry production.
U.S. Soybean Exports: Forecasted at 1.83 billion bushels, up 125 million from 2023/24, with stronger exports anticipated this fall due to a lower Brazilian 2024 harvest.
Price Projections: The 2024/25 U.S. season-average soybean price forecasted at $11.20 per bushel, down from $12.55 per bushel in 2023/24. Soybean meal price forecasted at $330 per short ton, down $50, and soybean oil price at 42 cents per pound, down 6 cents from 2023/24.
Global Oilseed Outlook: Higher production, crush, exports, and ending stocks projected compared to 2023/24, driven by increased soybean production in South America, the United States, and South Africa.
Brazil and Argentina's Soybean Production: Brazil's soybean production forecasted at 169.0 million tons, up from the revised 2023/24 crop of 154.0 million, while Argentina's soybean output forecasted at 51.0 million tons for 2024/25.
Global Soybean Exports and Ending Stocks: Global soybean exports for 2024/25 increasing 4 percent from last marketing year, with soybean ending stocks projected up 16.7 million tons to 128.5 million, mainly for Brazil, Argentina, the United States, and China.
Conclusion
The robust projections for U.S. soybeans in 2024/25 signal a promising year ahead for both domestic and international markets, buoyed by enhanced efficiencies and higher yields. Despite challenges such as fluctuating global demand and competitive pricing, the U.S. remains a formidable player in the soybean arena, poised to capitalize on its strengthened position in the global supply chain. With a focus on sustainability and technological innovation, the soybean industry looks set to navigate uncertainties and seize opportunities, ensuring continued growth and resilience in the years to come.