Wheat Futures Price Decline: Wheat futures in the US saw a decline, falling below $5.8 per bushel in September. This marked the lowest price level in nearly three years.
Increased Supply: The decline in wheat prices was attributed to increasing supply from the world's top wheat producers. In particular, favorable weather conditions in Russia boosted yields late in its wheat harvest at the end of August. As a result, the latest WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) report expected Russia to produce 85 million tonnes of wheat in the marketing year. This led to higher export expectations, making Russia the world's largest wheat exporter with a projected record-high of 49 million tonnes.
Stimulated Exports: The anticipation of a large wheat supply in Russia already stimulated exports, with SovEcon reporting a 17% increase in exports in September.
Lower Global Consumption Forecasts: The WASDE report also showed a revision of global wheat consumption forecasts lower by 210,000 tonnes to 795.9 million tonnes. This downward revision was attributed to lower demand in various regions, including Southeast Asia, Northern Africa, and Canada.
Ukraine's Export Prospects: News of ships successfully arriving in Ukraine through a temporary corridor raised hopes that Ukraine, another significant wheat producer, might be able to sell some of its grains in the foreign market.