Wheat 2023/24: U.S. Thrives, Global Challenges Ahead

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Wheat 2023/24: U.S. Thrives, Global Challenges Ahead
Credit: © Reuters.

U.S. Wheat Outlook (2023/24)

Higher Supplies: There is an increase in wheat supplies in the U.S., with an additional 85 million bushels. This is primarily due to higher production as reported in the NASS Small Grains Annual Summary.

Increased Domestic Use: Domestic use is raised by 30 million bushels, primarily driven by higher feed and residual use. The NASS Grain Stocks report for the first quarter of the year indicates higher domestic disappearance compared to previous expectations.

Unchanged Exports: Export projections remain the same at 700 million bushels. However, there are offsetting changes by wheat class.

Higher Ending Stocks: Projected ending stocks for U.S. wheat are raised by 55 million bushels to a total of 670 million, marking a 15 percent increase from the previous year.

Lower Season-Average Farm Price: The season-average farm price is reduced by $0.20 per bushel to $7.30. This reduction is attributed to higher projected stocks and expectations for futures and cash prices for the remainder of the marketing year.

Global Wheat Outlook (2023/24)

Reduced Supplies: Global wheat supplies are reduced by 3.5 million tons, totaling 1,051.0 million tons. This reduction is primarily due to decreased production in Australia, Kazakhstan, and Ethiopia. However, higher production in the United States partially offsets these reductions.

Lower Consumption: Global wheat consumption is reduced by 3.0 million tons, down to 792.9 million tons. The reduction is mainly driven by lower feed and residual use in Russia and Kazakhstan, along with reductions in food, seed, and industrial use in Ethiopia and Nigeria.

Decreased Trade: World trade in wheat is decreased by 1.1 million tons, down to 206.3 million tons. This is primarily due to reduced exports from Australia, Brazil, and Kazakhstan. The higher exports from Russia partially offset this reduction.

Lower Ending Stocks: The projected global ending stocks for the 2023/24 season are reduced by 0.5 million tons, resulting in a total of 258.1 million tons. This is the lowest level since the 2015/16 season.

In summary, the U.S. wheat outlook for 2023/24 indicates higher supplies, increased domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks. The global wheat outlook for the same period reveals reduced supplies, lower consumption, decreased trade, and lower ending stocks, with production challenges in multiple countries affecting the global picture.

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