Vodafone Idea (NS:VODA) shares took a significant hit, plunging as low as 14.3% to a three-month low of INR 12.91 during Friday's trading session. This sharp decline comes amid heavy trading volumes of over 1.09 billion shares, with the stock now at its lowest level since June 4, 2024. Over the past week, Vodafone Idea has seen its stock price tumble by 14.6%, reflecting investor concerns following the company’s mixed performance for the quarter ended June 2024 (Q1 FY25).
The steep decline in Vodafone Idea's share price was triggered by Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) maintaining its 'Sell' rating on the stock, with a target price of INR 2.5. The brokerage firm highlighted Vodafone Idea's ongoing struggles to achieve free cash flow break-even and recover market share. Despite the company’s recent capital raise, Goldman Sachs expressed doubts about its ability to halt market share erosion. The analysis pointed to a correlation between capital expenditure and revenue market share, forecasting a further 300 basis points loss in market share over the next 3-4 years.
Adding to the company's challenges, Vodafone Idea faces large Adjusted Gross Revenue (AGR) and spectrum-related payments starting in FY26. While the government has the option to convert some of these dues into equity, Goldman Sachs estimates that ARPUs would need to rise by 120-150% to achieve free cash flow neutrality—a scenario deemed unlikely in the medium term. Excluding any potential government intervention, the firm expects Vodafone Idea to remain free cash flow negative until at least FY31.
On a more positive note, after a successful follow-on public offer (FPO), Vodafone Idea is in talks with banks to raise INR 25,000 crore in debt. The company has also planned a significant capex of INR 50,000-55,000 crore over the next three years to strengthen its 4G network and launch 5G services. Analysts at Centrum Broking believe this capex program could reduce customer churn and improve network capacity, which, along with recent tariff hikes, could boost revenue and EBITDA over the next two years. However, they too maintain a 'Sell' rating, with an unchanged target price of INR 11 per share.
The fair value of Vodafone Idea, according to InvestingPro’s sophisticated financial models, is INR 9.44 per share, indicating a 29.3% downside from the current market price of INR 13.35. Investors using InvestingPro had already known about this massive overvaluation for a long time.
While Goldman Sachs' target is even lower at INR 2.5, the average target among 22 analysts covering the stock is INR 12.6, still below the current price.
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