Turmeric gains due to potential for yield losses caused by unfavourable weather.

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Turmeric gains due to potential for yield losses caused by unfavourable weather.

Turmeric prices rose by 1.58% to settle at 12836, driven by concerns of potential yield losses due to unfavourable weather conditions. However, the upside is expected to be limited as buying activities have been slow, with expectations of stock releases ahead of the commencement of new crops in January 2024. Improved crop conditions resulting from favourable weather are also contributing to the pressure on prices. 

The announcement of PM Modi's Turmeric Board in Telangana has sparked concerns among farmers in Maharashtra over the headquarters' location. The IMD's projection of drier-than-average conditions in October is anticipated to impact crop growth. While current buying activity levels are relatively low, decreasing supplies and sustained price stability are expected. Support is also evident for improved export opportunities, with a 25% increase in turmeric exports during April-September 2023 compared to the same period in 2022. However, in September 2023, turmeric exports decreased by 19.75% month-on-month and by 35.06% compared to September 2022. Expectations of a 20–25% decline in turmeric seeding, particularly in Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu (NS: TNNP ), Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana, due to shifting farmer priorities, are contributing to the overall market dynamics. 

From a technical perspective, the market is undergoing short-covering, with a 4.08% drop in open interest to settle at 10345. Despite a price increase of 200 rupees, Turmeric finds support at 12728, with a potential test of 12620 below that level. On the upside, resistance is likely around 12936, and a move beyond could lead to a test of 13036.

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