Investing.com -- Historically, March has typically been a positive month for major US stock indexes.
According to market research firm Stock Trader’s Almanac (STA), the S&P 500, along with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), NASDAQ, Russell 1000, and Russell 2000, have advanced more than 64% of the time, with average gains ranging from 0.7% to 1.1%.
The S&P 500 specifically averages a 1.1% increase during this month.
The first three trading days of March have usually seen an accumulation of gains over the past 21 years, STA notes, followed by a period of weakness. However, a recovery tends to occur around mid-month, leading to higher index values by the end of March.
In post-election years since 1950, March has also started strong, with the momentum typically lasting until just after mid-month. The performance in these years then becomes more volatile towards the month’s close.
“One possible reason for stronger performance in post-election-year Marchs is the historically tough time the market has had in past post-election-year Februarys,” STA said in a report.
“Despite today’s (February 20) market retreat, this February is still above its historical average performance which could limit or weigh on early March gains,” it added.
March is a significant month on the financial calendar, marking the end of the first quarter. This period includes the Quadruple Witching, when stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures expire simultaneously, which historically has led to bullish market behavior.
Still, the week following Quad-Witching has often seen the DJIA decline, with notable downturns in 22 out of the last 37 years.
In post-election years, March’s average gains are reduced, with the Nasdaq notably switching from an average gain of 0.8% to a slight loss of 0.1%. The Nasdaq’s historical performance in March has been particularly volatile, with a significant drop of 14.5% in 2001 and a substantial gain of 10.9% in 2009.
Saint Patrick’s Day also appears to have an influence on market performance, with the S&P 500 historically posting greater gains on the holiday compared to the days before and after.
“Perhaps it’s the anticipation of the patron saint’s holiday that boosts the market and the distraction from the parade down Fifth Avenue that causes equity markets to languish. Or maybe it’s the fact that Saint Pat’s often falls in historically bullish Quad-Witching Week,” STA continued.
Since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged a 0.27% gain on Saint Patrick’s Day, or the next trading day if it falls on a weekend, with a 0.07% increase the following day and a 0.11% gain the day before.