Investing.com -- Rails have been steadily gaining freight share from trucks in recent months, and this trend could continue, according to Bernstein.
The firm explained in a note Tuesday that improved rail service and rising supply chain costs are driving the shift, with rail intermodal volumes increasing as truckload (TL) volumes decline.
“There’s plenty of room to go before we’re back to intermodal index levels seen around 2018, 2019, and 2021,” said Bernstein, noting that current levels are still 9-11% below those peaks.
Bernstein’s analysis shows a clear modal shift beginning in mid-2024. “A meaningful shift started to unfold between July and August 2024, when the TL Index dropped by an amount greater than 1% (-1.5% MoM in Aug-24) for the first time that year, and simultaneously, the rail intermodal volume index spiked by 2.7% MoM,” the firm said.
Since July 2024, the rail intermodal index has reportedly grown an average of 0.6% per month, while truckload volumes have declined at a -1.3% CAGR over the same period.
Bernstein states that the shifts occurred even as overall freight volumes remained stable, indicating that trucks are losing share to rail rather than the market shrinking.
Truck spot rates, which began rising in mid-2024, contributed to the shift. “Any inflationary pressure will push shippers to look for ways to offset cost inflation, and trading down to intermodal saves money,” Bernstein noted.
With truck spot rates expected to keep rising in 2025 and rail service improving after winter challenges, Bernstein expects the shift toward rail to continue throughout the year, creating further upside potential for rail stocks.