Investing.com -- In a brief note Friday, the Stock Trader’s Almanac emphasized the unique significance of January’s market performance, highlighting that no other month demonstrates as much outperformance in the subsequent months when it ends higher.
“No other month in the year exhibits as much outperformance when the month is up versus when the month is down over the following 11-months and 12-months,” the analysts wrote.
They explain that since 1938, when the S&P 500 has finished January in positive territory, the index has gained an average of 11.8% over the next 11 months.
Conversely, when January has been down, the average gain over the following 11 months has dropped sharply to just 1.2%.
The firm highlighted that “years with a positive January have historically outperformed a down January by 10.6%” over the next 11 months and by 11.3% over the next full year.
The report also noted that the market is currently following historical post-election year trends, which tend to be “mixed and choppy” in the first quarter.
Analysts at Stock Trader’s Almanac reaffirmed their Base Case scenario for full-year gains of 8-12% but warned that “chop and weakness” are likely to persist through the first quarter and could return in the third quarter.
With January’s historical track record as a strong predictor of the market’s performance, the firm sees its outcome as a crucial indicator for investors watching how the rest of the year may unfold.