LIVE MARKETS-Brexit and trade: Easy tiger, no fat lady singing yet!

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LIVE MARKETS-Brexit and trade: Easy tiger, no fat lady singing yet!
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* Optimism on Brexit and the trade war drive stocks higher

* STOXX up 1.3%, Irish stocks jump 2.8% outperforming rest of Europe

* Publicis sinks after results, drags WPP down

* Hugo Boss shares slump 13%, pulling down Burberry Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of European equity markets brought to you by Reuters stocks reporters and anchored today by Julien Ponthus. Reach him on Messenger to share your thoughts on market moves:


Calls for caution and reality checks are coming left, right and centre from our contacts while stocks and the pound are high on optimism towards Brexit and the trade war.

There are no deals on the table for either issues as of yet though and all this market hype could deflate quickly and turn into a classic "buy the rumour sell the news" nightmare for overly optimistic investors.

This morning's mini crash on the pound is a perfect illustration of how volatile things still are. are a few nuggets for you:

Stéphane Barbier de la Serre, macro strategist at Makor Capital Markets

"Both trade talks and Brexit are positive news, but it is too early. I think the market is moving a bit ahead of itself."

Dean Turner, UBS WM CIO

"Good news is always welcome, but at this stage it remains just that: news. The chances of a deal seem to have improved and the pound has moved accordingly but hurdles still remain." ​

Marija Veitmane, State Street (NYSE: STT ) Global Markets senior strategist

"Markets are increasingly narrowly driven, this means that every piece of a good news is going to propel markets strongly higher. Currently investors are very optimistic about the U.S.–China trade negotiations as well as potential Brexit resolution. However, we are yet to see concrete details on the either deal. We expect market to sell off sharply should those hopes be disappointed."

Petr Krpata, chief EMEA FX and IR strategist, ING

"While there seems to be a change in the attitude to talks, there is no certainty that a deal will be reached given the differences between the EU and the UK on the question of the Irish customs union.

"Even if some form of a deal is reached, it is still uncertain whether the deal will get past the divided UK Parliament. Also, one may claim that the more optimistic tone from both sides may be more likely reflecting the aim of the parties to avoid the blame for failed talks."

And here's another example of warning doing the rounds on Twitter:

(Thyagaraju Adinarayan, Joice Alves and Julien Ponthus)



When it comes to stock markets, there's really nothing like a massive corporate tax cut to prop things up, writes Kevin Muir in this week's MacroTourist newsletter.

Granted, if one compares European equities muddled in an environment of negative rates with their U.S. peers, turbocharged by Trump's fiscal stimulus, the last two years seem to unequivocally validate his point.

Tax cuts are however no longer on the U.S. agenda and investors will be served Fed cuts instead. In Europe, the ECB seems entangled in an apparent endless lower-for-longer monetary cul-de-sac while a German fiscal stimulus remains an investor fantasy for now.

Taking the view that "the world is starved for fiscal stimulus", Muir noted with great interest Indian shares on Sept 20 notching their best day in more an a decade after the government announced deep cuts in corporate taxes to revive flagging growth. lesson learned from that is quite straightforward Muir believes.

"Buy countries willing to engage in fiscal stimulus, sell those relying on monetary stimulus".

In practice, he advocates a pretty contrarian and arguably very risky trade: "I think buying India and shorting either the US or the entire MSCI world index is a great risk reward trade".

(Julien Ponthus)



It's as expected a positive start for European stocks but a few stocks are somewhat spoiling the party such as Hugo Boss BOSSn.DE which is in free fall, down about 11%, its worst performance since Feb 2016 and hitting its lowest since 2010.

Kering PRTP.PA and LVMH LVMH.PA shares, which had a great day yesterday are not being hit, but Burberry BRBY.L is feeling the heat, down 3.2%.

Talking about disappointing results, Publicis PUBP.PA is sinking 12.6% and dragging WPP WPP.L with it. The British advertiser is retreating 3.8%.

Among losers, Euronext is also facing heavy blows, down 4%, after unveiling a new set of financial targets.

Elsewhere there's no shortage of love for SAP SAPG.DE as the stock is rising 7.5% on a good set of results and lifting the European tech sector (+2.5%).

The only big index in red is the FTSE, and that's due to the pound getting a boost from new found optimism on a possible Brexit deal.

That meanwhile is boosting the Irish stocks .ISEQ , which is outperforming rest of Europe.

(Julien Ponthus)



Optimism on both the trade war and the Brexit fronts is seen lifting European stock markets this morning. Futures are currently trading in the green at the exception of the FTSE which is being dragged down by the rising pound.

There's also plenty of corporate news likely to trigger sharp moves at the open such as for France's Publicis PUBP.PA , which had to cut its full-year sales target for a second time and has seen its rating cut by SocGen. There's a likely read-across for WPP WPP.L which is also expected to suffer.

After yesterday's stellar results for luxury, there could be hard landing to investors with Hugo Boss BOSSn.DE cutting its 2019 earnings forecast, citing weak demand notably in Hong Kong, a growing concern for the industry.

Germany's SAP SAPG.DE is on the rise after it published a strong set of third-quarter results lifted by a major cloud-computing deal with its CEO standing down.

In the financial industry, Jupiter JUP.L reported net ouflows of 1.3 billion pounds ($1.6 billion) in the third quarter while Man Group 's EMG.L assets under management fell 1.5%. the nordics, Equinor EQNR.OL said it would $549 million to build floating turbines to supply power to several North Sea oil and gas platforms.

In what could be seen as a vote of confidence for London's financial centre, EG Group is reported considering an IPO which could value the company at over $12.44 billion.

The Renault/Nissan corporate saga is continuing to unfold with Renault's RENA.PA Thierry Bollore, denouncing a "coup" against him.

Here are a few headlines:

SAP's McDermott steps down after decade as chief salesman and dealmaker Boss cuts outlook again, citing weak U.S., Hong Kong business Group weighs IPO that could value co at over $12.44 bln- Bloomberg launches 5G smartphone plans for consumers and businesses top shareholder says never called for special dividend board to meet, as CEO denounces potential exit as 'coup' sets new financial targets, ready for more M&A deals Ferretti IPO postponed to Oct. 15 due to weak demand Group expects to exceed profit view on Thomas Cook (NS: THOM ) liquidation Billionaire Leonardo Del Vecchio Plans To Lift His Stake In Mediobanca Above 10%- FT CEO under pressure following second sales target cut Ponthus and Joice Alves)



There clearly are positives vibes making their way from Asia and the U.S. this morning when it comes to the U.S./trade war and that should be enough to lift European bourses at the open.

Trump's willingness to meet China's top trade negotiator is fuelling optimism that progress can be achieved on an issue which has been a constant burden for investors for close to two years now.

IG financial spreadbetters expect Frankfurt's DAX to open 35 points higher and Paris' CAC to rise 14 points, adding on yesterday's gains.

While new found optimism on Brexit is participating to the risk-on build-up, the rise in the pound is however weighing on British blue chips which often have heavy exposures to the dollar.

London's FTSE is seen opening 24 points lower.

(Julien Ponthus)


($1 = 0.8028 pounds) sdfg sdf cvb


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