Investing.com -- Investors should re-initiate risk-off trades as U.S. policy uncertainty intensifies, according to BCA Research.
With tariff implementation arriving in March and April, volatility is set to rise.
BCA strategists see this as an opportune moment to tactically overweight U.S. defensives versus cyclicals, particularly Health Care over Technology.
“We are reinitiating our defensive trades. Cyclically, go long US defensive equity sectors relative to cyclicals. Specifically, favor Health Care over Tech,” strategists led by Matt Gertken noted.
Political and fiscal uncertainty remain key concerns. The House budget resolution was “merely procedural” and will now be renegotiated, they said, likely resulting in higher budget deficits.
At the same time, the potential for a government shutdown looms large, as Congress faces a March 14 deadline to pass a continuing resolution.
Given the narrow Republican majority in the House, passing such a measure without bipartisan support could be challenging, “but with Trump willing to pressure GOP lawmakers, it is not improbable,” according to BCA’s team.
Meanwhile, ongoing Ukraine talks offer some optimism, but the risk of oil price shocks remains high.
Overall, strategists believe that economic policy uncertainty will rise further due to sharp spending cuts, unpredictable tax policy, and heightened geopolitical risks.
With market volatility expected to remain, the firm has renewed several of its defensive trades. "We think it will get worse because it is related to tariff implementation as well as US fiscal uncertainty – on top of broader economic and trade policy uncertainty,” strategists noted.
Alongside favoring defensives over cyclicals, they also urged investors to stay long on U.S. small caps relative to global small caps, though small caps are expected to decline in absolute terms.
Moreover, strategists suggest maintaining long positions in U.S. arms makers compared to the broader market and prefer U.S. energy stocks over the tech sector.