Hartnett: Below this S&P 500 level, ‘Stocks Down Under Trump’ headlines will begin

Published 28-02-2025, 03:04 pm
© Reuters.

Investing.com -- Money market funds attracted the majority of weekly flows, while gold funds saw record inflows and crypto funds experienced record outflows, according to Bank of America’s latest “Flow Show” report.

For the week ending Feb. 26, money market funds took in $57.4 billion, equities saw $27.2 billion in inflows, and bonds attracted $23.9 billion.

Gold funds recorded a historic $4.7 billion inflow, while crypto funds saw a record $2.6 billion in outflows. Among equity inflows,

US stocks led with $26.9 billion, marking the largest weekly inflow of 2025. European equities recorded a third consecutive week of inflows, bringing the total over three weeks to $8 billion.

Sector-wise, healthcare stocks attracted their biggest weekly inflow since August 2023, at $1.3 billion.

Strategists led by Michael Hartnett flagged the S&P 500’s election-day close of 5783 as a critical level, describing it as the first "strike price of the Trump put." Below this threshold, they expect headlines of "Stocks Down Under Trump" to begin, and investors with long positions in risk assets would “very much expect and need” verbal support from policymakers.

Hartnett’s team also pointed to the US small-cap iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF (NYSE:IJR) as the most significant price to watch. The fund has yet to break above its 2021 highs with a backdrop of tariffs, foreign direct investment inflows, tax cuts, deregulation, and Federal Reserve rate cuts.

This, they argue, “tells you bonds outperform stocks,” Hartnett wrote.

By region, emerging market equities saw a fourth consecutive week of outflows, totaling $5.1 billion. Japan’s equity inflows resumed at $1.7 billion, while European equities posted a third week of inflows at $1.4 billion.

In fixed income, investment-grade bonds saw their 70th consecutive week of inflows at $11 billion, the largest since October 2024. High-yield bonds recorded a sixth week of inflows at $2.7 billion.

Treasuries continued to see inflows for a third week at $5.4 billion, while municipal bonds posted an eighth straight week of inflows at $2.2 billion.

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