France’s corporate tax hike to impact FY25 earnings: Barclays

EditorSenad Karaahmetovic
Published 12-02-2025, 03:16 pm
© Reuters.

Investing.com -- The proposed increase in corporate tax rates in France, originally set to pass in Q424, has now been approved by both chambers of Parliament in France and could become law in the coming days.

This news had a notable impact on the stock market, with Aptar Pharma’s stock (ATR US) falling by approximately 10% on Friday, significantly more than the S&P 500’s 1% drop.

The tax increase is intended to be a one-time measure for 2025, affecting French taxable revenues. As per the official budget, the tax surcharge will be determined based on the average revenues of 2024 and 2025 and must be paid before the end of 2025.

For firms with revenues ranging between EUR 1-3bn, the tax on French earnings will rise from 25% to 30.2%. For companies with revenues exceeding EUR 3bn, the tax will increase from 25% to 35.3%.

Barclays (LON:BARC) has highlighted that Staple companies with significant EBIT exposure to France, such as L’Oreal and JDE Peet, could see a 1% impact on their FY25 EPS estimates.

French-based companies like L’Oreal and Danone (EPA:DANO) might experience a lesser impact as a larger portion of their corporate costs are in France compared to other regions. As this higher tax rate applies only for 2025, Barclays suggests that investors apply a 1x multiple to this potential EPS impact.

However, they also note that in a nervous market, even a slight EPS miss could provoke a stronger reaction from investors.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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