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Investing.com -- Barclays (LON:BARC) analysts have revised their outlook on European airport operators, upgrading Aéroports de Paris (EPA:ADP) (ADP (NASDAQ:ADP)) and Zurich Airport to “overweight” from “equal weight,” while downgrading Aena and Athens International Airport (AIA) to “equal weight” from “overweight.” The brokerage maintained its “overweight” rating on Fraport (ETR:FRAG).
The ADP upgrade follows improved regulatory signals and a strategic refocus on its Paris assets. Barclays said political instability remains, but state ownership may shield ADP from further financial burdens.
The government’s recent legal change allowing for 10-year regulatory reviews and narrowing disputes over the weighted average cost of capital were cited as signs of progress.
ADP’s FY26 EBITDA estimate was raised by 2%, and the price target increased from €103 to €125. Zurich Airport’s upgrade reflects a more visible path forward for its Noida project in India and clearer regulatory timelines.
Barclays expects airport charges and operations to be confirmed by year-end. FY26 EBITDA was revised up by 4%, with the price target rising from CHF212 to CHF255.
The brokerage said recent share gains do not fully offset the potential from upcoming catalysts. Aena was downgraded due to valuation, with the stock trading near the revised €238 price target, down slightly from €240.
Barclays kept earnings estimates unchanged but noted high capital expenditure (capex) from the Barcelona Airport expansion.
Regulatory risks were downplayed, with analysts expecting flat airport charges in the next regulatory period. FY26 EBITDA was forecast at €3.98 billion, in line with consensus.
Athens International Airport also saw a downgrade, with the stock near Barclays’ updated €10.25 price target.
The brokerage noted strong inbound travel and an extended tourism season in Greece but said these positives are priced in. FY26 EBITDA was left unchanged.
Barclays cited limited scope for higher dividends or new growth catalysts under the current concession structure.
Fraport retained its OW rating, supported by the upcoming 2026 opening of Terminal Three in Frankfurt, which is expected to boost commercial income and passenger experience.
Barclays projects the company will move from breakeven free cash flow in 2025 to positive in 2026 as capex winds down in Frankfurt and Lima. The brokerage’s €72 price target and earnings estimates were unchanged.
Traffic trends showed mixed performance across the board in the first quarter, with passenger growth lagging seat capacity, partly due to Easter timing.
Long-haul routes to the Middle East and Asia are growing faster than intra-European and Atlantic markets, which Barclays sees as supportive for retail revenue per passenger. Inflationary cost pressures are easing.