S&P 500 is 'nearly perfect' when these 3 indicators align - Stock Trader's Almanac

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S&P 500 is 'nearly perfect' when these 3 indicators align - Stock Trader's Almanac
Credit: © Reuters.

The Stock Trader’s Almanac continues to be bullish on stocks following their analysis of seasonal patterns and the 4-year Presidential Election cycle.

Analysts were one of the very few on the Street who correctly called the 2023 rally in risk assets. October's late-month turnaround aligned with historical patterns, they said, setting the stage for the ‘Best Six Months’.

With the S&P 500 up 22.4%, NASDAQ up 41.2%, DJIA at new all-time highs, and the small-cap Russell 2000 outpacing big caps since October lows, their 2023 forecast – though not flawless – was spot on.

Analysts are now out with their 2024 forecast. The analysis is especially focused on the “Santa Claus Rally” which is an integral part of their “January Indicator Trifecta”, together with the “First Five Days” (of the year) and “January Barometer”.

“When all three are positive, our January Indicator Trifecta is nearly perfect with 28 S&P 500 full-year gains in 31 years,” the analysis said.

“We look forward to seeing Santa’s arrival and a positive Santa Claus Rally. Then we will be watching for a positive First Five Days and January Barometer, what we refer to as our January Indicator Trifecta. Until the market says otherwise, we anticipate them all to be positive,” analysts concluded.

When it comes to 2024 being an election year, Stock Trader’s Almanac noted that the market “hates uncertainty.”

“When a sitting president is running for reelection S&P 500 averages a gain 12.8% in election years since 1949.”

“The market hates uncertainty and with a sitting president running there is a good chance market, economic and civic conditions will likely remain unchanged whereas with an open field there are a great deal of unknowns. 2024 has that power of incumbency going for it.”

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