RBC maintains Outperform rating on Alnylam ahead of trial results

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RBC maintains Outperform rating on Alnylam ahead of trial results
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On Monday, RBC Capital Markets reiterated its Outperform rating on shares of Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, with a price target of $235.00. The firm's positive stance is based on an extensive review of clinical data related to treatments for patients with transthyretin-mediated cardiomyopathy (TTR-CM), a condition that Alnylam's therapies aim to address.

The analyst highlighted that while there is a lack of randomized data beyond the first 18-24 months in a trial that spans over 30 months, the strong cardiac benefit observed in the APOLLO-B trial supports confidence in a favorable outcome for the primary endpoint in the upcoming HELIOS-B study. This optimism is further bolstered by the pre-specified cardiac subgroup of the APOLLO trial and evidence suggesting that hard endpoints can be achieved despite advancements in medical management.

The potential for Alnylam's drug to demonstrate a clear advantage when used alongside tafamidis, another medication for TTR-CM, is still being determined. However, the analyst leans toward a positive outcome, noting that survival curves for silencers—like Alnylam's product—tend to diverge earlier than those for stabilizers and show a numerically lower mortality rate at 18-24 months. The different mechanisms of action between silencers and stabilizers are expected to have additive or synergistic effects.

RBC Capital also summarized feedback from the last 10 key opinion leader (KOL) calls, revealing a sentiment that skews heavily bullish, with 8 out of 10 expressing positive outlooks. Following a recent pullback in Alnylam's stock price, the firm sees an 18% risk-adjusted upside, which has been calculated by considering four different potential outcomes for the upcoming trial data.

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