U.S. Oilseeds Outlook (2023/24)
Lower Production: U.S. oilseed production for 2023/24 is forecasted at 120.9 million tons, down 1.3 million tons from the previous month. This reduction is attributed to lower production across various oilseeds, including soybeans, cottonseed, peanuts, rapeseed, and sunflower seeds.
Soybean Production: Soybean production is forecasted at 4.1 billion bushels, down 42 million bushels due to lower yields. Harvested area remains unchanged at 82.8 million acres, but the soybean yield is projected at 49.6 bushels per acre, down 0.5 bushels from the September forecast. Major production changes are noted for Kansas, Michigan, and Nebraska.
Supplies Reduction: Lower production, partially offset by higher beginning stocks, results in a 24 million bushels reduction in soybean supplies.
Soybean Exports: Soybean exports are reduced by 35 million bushels to 1.76 billion due to increased competition from South America.
Soybean Crush: Soybean crush is projected at 2.3 billion bushels, up 10 million, driven by higher soybean meal exports and domestic demand for soybean oil.
Ending Stocks: Ending stocks are unchanged from the previous month at 220 million bushels, with lower exports offset by increased crush.
Price Projections: The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 remains unchanged at $12.90 per bushel. Soybean meal and oil prices are also unchanged at $380 per short ton and 63 cents per pound, respectively.
Global Oilseeds Outlook (2023/24)
Foreign Production: Foreign oilseed production is lowered by 0.2 million tons to 538.5 million, mainly due to lower soybean and peanut output in India and decreased canola production in Canada. However, higher rapeseed production in Poland and sunflower seed production in Argentina partially offset these reductions.
India's Soybean Production: India's soybean production is lowered by 1.0 million tons to 11.0 million tons due to near-record rains in September and historically dry conditions in August, which negatively impacted yields.
Global Soybean Exports: Global soybean exports are reduced by 0.2 million tons to 168.2 million, primarily due to lower exports from the United States, offset by higher shipments from Brazil. Soybean imports are also lowered for Pakistan.
Global Soybean Crush: Global soybean crush is increased by 0.8 million tons to 328.5 million, driven by higher crush in China and the United States. China's crush is raised to 97.0 million tons, in line with higher demand for domestic soybean meal. However, India and Pakistan have lower crush due to reduced supplies.
Global Ending Stocks: Global soybean ending stocks are lowered by 3.6 million tons to 115.6 million, primarily due to lower stocks in China, Brazil, and India.
In summary, the U.S. oilseeds outlook for 2023/24 shows lower production, particularly for soybeans, reduced exports, higher crush, and unchanged ending stocks. Globally, there are adjustments in oilseed production, exports, crush, and ending stocks, with notable changes in India, China, Brazil, and other countries impacting the overall global oilseeds market.