New series begins on a positive note but sustainability?

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New series begins on a positive note but sustainability?
Credit: © Reuters.

New Delhi, Oct 1 (IANS) It was a topsy-turvy week that went by. Markets were flat for the first two trading sessions, and then gained, lost and ended the week with gains.Expiry day was weak and on expected lines while the first day of a new series saw gains for the market.

At the end of it all, BSESENSEX lost 180.74 points or 0.27 per cent to close at 65,828.41 points, while NIFTY lost 35.95 points or 0.18 per cent to close at 19,638.30 points. Monday, markets were so flat that the net change in the NIFTY was in only decimal points. The broader markets saw BSE100 lose 0.12 per cent while BSE200 and BSE500 gained 0.03 per cent and 0.19 per cent. BSEMIDCAP gained 1.23 per cent while BSESMALLCAP gained 1.36 per cent.

The Indian Rupee lost 11 paisa or 0.13 per cent to close at Rs 83.04 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones continues to be on the losing spree. It lost on three of the five trading sessions and gained on two. Dow was down 456.34 points or 1.34 per cent to close at 33,507.50 points.

The primary markets continue to remain in focus. We saw three issues open and close for subscription last week. There were three listings during the week as well. Currently there are two issues which are open for subscription. With these two issues closing there will be a brief hiatus of main board issues for at least a fortnight.

The issue from JSW Infrastructure Limited which was open from Monday the 25th of September to Wednesday the 27th of September was subscribed 39.36 times overall. The QIB portion was subscribed 60.12 times, HNI portion was subscribed 16.83 times and Retail portion was subscribed 10.86 times. There were 16.90 lakh applications. The issue would be listed on Tuesday the 3rd of October.

On the basis of allotment, one saw a strange pattern of bidding where 17 applications bid for roughly 85 lakh shares in the 10 lakh plus HNI category and about Rs 101 crore in value. This implied an average bidding size of 5 lakh shares against the bulk of bidding which happened for 8,442 shares. At this size there were 44,435 bids and accounted for 95.54 per cent of the applications in the category. The whole idea was to distort the bidding process and give a different look to the demand. Suffice to say that there is nothing illegal about it.

The second issue was from Manoj Vaibhav Gems N Jewellers Limited which had tapped the markets with its issue in a price band of Rs 204-215. The issue was subscribed 2.33 times overall with QIB portion subscribed 1.08 times, HNI portion subscribed 5.40 times and Retail subscribed 1.73 times. There were 99,893 applications in all.

The third issue was from Updater Services Limited which had tapped the markets. The issue was open from Wednesday the 27th of September to Friday the 29th of September. The issue was subscribed 2.96 times overall with QIB portion subscribed 4.50 times, HNI portion undersubscribed at 0.89 times and Retail subscribed 1.45 times there were 49,715 applications.

The first share to list was Signature Global (India) Limited which had tapped the markets with its issue at Rs 385. The share listed at Rs 444 and closed day one at Rs 458.40, a gain of Rs 73.40 or 19.06 per cent. It closed the week at Rs 477.90, a gain of Rs 92.90 or 24.13 per cent.

The second share to list was Sai Silks (Kalamandir) Limited which had tapped the capital markets with its issue priced at Rs 222. The share debuted at Rs 242.15 and closed day one at Rs 244.85, a gain of Rs 22.85 or 10.29 per cent. It closed the week at Rs 253.20, a gain of Rs 31.20 or 14.05 per cent.

The third share to list was Yatra Online Limited which had issued shares at Rs 142. The share debuted at Rs 130 and closed day one at Rs 135.95, a loss of Rs 6.05 or 4.27 per cent. On Friday the share recovered a bit and closed at Rs 136.90, a loss of Rs 5.10 or 3.59 per cent.

September futures expired on a weak note and the series loss was 136.35 points or 0.69 per cent. The series ended at 19,523.55 points. Incidentally the series lost 193 points on Thursday, expiry day and prior to the same, the series was actually positive. Suffice to say that the bulls lost their way and bears clawed back on the final day.

The quarter July to September has ended and in another ten days or so, results for the quarter would start to be declared. This is a crucial quarter and market trends going forward would be determined post these results. Expect markets to be choppy and volatile. We have during the last week managed to take support at the lower end of the pivot of 19,600 points on NIFTY and this level no longer holds comfort. The new levels of support are 19,200 and 64,500 points. Resistance is at 19,800-19,850 points and 66,500-66,650 points respectively.

Monday is a trading holiday in India. IT major Accenture (NYSE: ACN ) has declared results in the US which are disappointing and the top losers in India were from the IT pack. This sector is crucial going forward and would be keenly watched. The strategy would be to look at buying on sharp dips and selling on rallies.

Trade cautiously.

(Arun Kejriwal is the founder of Kejriwal Research and Investment Services. The views expressed are personal)



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