Forex Expert Decodes Rupee’s Fall, Pressure Points & Provides Key Levels

  • Forex News
Forex Expert Decodes Rupee’s Fall, Pressure Points & Provides Key Levels

By Malvika Gurung -- The Indian rupee sank to a record low against the US dollar on Friday, exceeding the 82-mark for the first time ever amid weak global cues that intensified concerns of the US Fed turning to aggressive monetary tightening, leading to recession.

At the time of writing, the domestic currency traded at 82.257 against the greenback.

While crude oil prices traded marginally lower in the session, it has recorded strong weekly gains and is up 7-10% this week following OPEC+’s announcement of the biggest supply cut since 2020.

Further, global markets fell ahead of the US non-farm payrolls report, scheduled to release on Friday. INR has fallen almost 10.6% YTD.

In a note provided to, Kunal Sodhani, Vice President, Global Trading Center, Shinhan Bank says,

“Bets for more aggressive Fed rate hikes and elevated U.S. bond yields continue to boost the USD. Fed's Evans says the policy rate could head to 4.5%-4.75%. Euro fell after ECB minutes as it showed overwhelming inflation worries.

The USD/CNH pair has bounced sharply from around 7.02 levels to near 7.11 levels which will put pressure on the rupee. Brent oil prices continued to hold higher levels after the announcement of a 2 million BPD of output cut.

Eyes remain on the US NFP data due today. There was arbitrage seen between onshore and offshore in 3-month tenor after 3:30 pm apart from large ECB payments pushing the USDINR pair higher.

For USD/INR, 81.75 acts as support while 82.6 a resistance.”

Read Also: INR Falls to Lifetime Low, Surpasses 82-Mark Ahead of Key US Data: Major Drivers

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