Investing.com -- The January Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed a softer-than-expected increase of 143,000 jobs, with higher wages and a lower unemployment rate at 4.0%.
Wall Street analysts weighed in on the mixed data:
UBS said the “labor market data still looks sturdy.” The bank noted that while January’s job gains disappointed, revisions to December figures were significantly higher, reinforcing the view that the labor market remains solid. The unemployment rate dipped below expectations, and average hourly earnings (AHE) surged 0.48% month-over-month, pushing 12-month wage inflation back above 4%.
The firm also pointed to potential weather-related impacts and revisions that lowered the average pace of job gains in 2024 from 186,000 to 166,000 per month. UBS cautioned that job growth was previously overstated by roughly 50,000 per month, which could impact how the Federal Reserve interprets the data.
William Blair labeled the data a “mixed bag of modest growth, but higher wages.” The firm highlighted the headline miss in job growth but noted that prior revisions added 100,000 jobs to November and December’s numbers. The firm pointed out that a massive 2.2 million jump in household employment was due to population estimate revisions rather than an actual hiring surge.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.5% month-over-month and 3.9% year-over-year, signaling continued wage pressures. Blair warned that potential immigration restrictions could tighten the labor market further, driving wages even higher.
Evercore ISI stated that it was a “hawkish employment report” and reduced the likelihood of a March Fed rate cut. They cited lower unemployment, higher wages, and a three-month average payroll gain of 237,000 jobs. The firm believes the Fed will need further reassurance that the labor market is cooling before considering rate cuts in May or June.
“Persistent strength is the bottom line,” according to Jefferies. They noted that January’s 143,000 job gain fell short of expectations, but revisions to prior months showed continued labor market resilience. The strong 0.5% increase in AHE, coupled with limited signs of slack in the job market, suggests that the Fed has no urgency to cut rates.
Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) believes there was a “temporary drag from weather” and attributed some of the softness in job growth to cold weather and wildfires, estimating that weather-related effects reduced payroll gains by 40,000 jobs.
Despite the weaker January number, the firm pointed to stronger revisions to Q4 2024 data as evidence that the labor market remains tight.
The bank maintained that the report supports the Fed’s patient stance on rate cuts, allowing policymakers to wait for more inflation data before making decisions.