Investing.com - The market may be exaggerating the risk to U.S. economic growth from President Donald Trump’s punishing tariff agenda, according to analysts at Standard Chartered (LON:STAN).
In a note to clients, the analysts led by Steve Englander argued that, as long as Trump’s tariffs do not "morph into quantitative restrictions on imports, importers should be able to find a market clearing price."
"Quantitative restrictions can end up being irrelevant or causing shortages that drive prices up far more sharply than tariffs would," they said.
The brokerage added that the impact of Trump’s soaring tariffs on China "may be overstated", noting that roughly 22% of imports from the country have been exempted from the levies. Some China-made items may also remain competitive even if they are impacted by the full tariff, while there is a set of goods that may be "easily produced elsewhere", the strategists said.
U.S. importers, meanwhile, have seemingly stocked up enough to give themselves "time to figure out" how to deal with any price shocks from the tariffs, the analysts said.
Trump unveiled punishing levies on dozens of U.S. trading partners in early April, saying the moves were necessary to reshore lost manufacturing jobs and bolster government revenues. However, he later instituted a 90-day pause to the duties on most of these countries, claiming it would give officials more time to negotiate a slew of individual trade agreements.
China, crucially, was omitted from the delay, and now faces tariffs of at least 145%. Beijing has responded with its own duties of 125% on U.S. imports, exacerbating concerns over an intensifying trade war betweenthe world’s two largest economies.
On Thursday, Trump and U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced a trade deal between the U.S. and Britain, bolstering hopes that the White House could secure aggrements with other nations. Talks are due to take place in Switzerland this weekend between U.S. and Chinese officials, with Trump suggesting that the heightened levies on Beijing will eventually be lowered.
Many economists have warned that Trump’s levies could push up prices, weigh on the labor market, and dent growth, while several businesses have said murkiness around the White House’s trade plans has made it difficult to plan out future investment decisions.
In the first quarter, U.S. gross domestic product contracted due largely to the spike in imports, although consumer spending and labor market indicators remained resilient.