Q3 Earnings Alert! Plan early for this week’s stock reports with all key data in 1 placeSee list

EBRD Revises 2023 GDP Growth Forecasts for Turkey and Georgia

EditorVenkatesh Jartarkar
Published 27-09-2023, 11:20 pm

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has revised its 2023 GDP growth forecast for Turkey, according to the Regional Economic Prospects report published today. The bank now expects Turkey's economy to expand by 3.5% in 2023, up from a previous forecast in May of 2.5%. This upward revision reflects strong growth in the first half of the year, spurred by pre-election fiscal stimulus. However, growth is expected to decelerate in the second half of the year.

Despite the anticipated growth, the report underscores persistent external imbalances in Turkey's economy. Short-term external debt exceeds $200 billion, and the current account deficit stands at $60 billion. While foreign exchange reserves are increasing, they remain modest.

The EBRD also projects a 3% GDP growth for Turkey in 2024. The bank notes that a return to orthodox economic policies is a positive signal, and local elections in March 2024 will be significant as they approach.

In the first half of 2023, Turkey's GDP growth slowed from 5.6% in 2022 to 3.9% year on year. Inflation declined but remains elevated and is expected to rise to 60% by the end of 2023.

The EBRD has invested more than €18 billion in various sectors of the Turkish economy, primarily in the private sector.

The EBRD also updated its economic growth forecasts for Georgia in 2023 and 2024. The bank now predicts a probable growth rate of 6% for Georgia's economy in 2023, up from an initial forecast of a 5% expansion made in May. However, the growth outlook for 2024 has been scaled back to 4.5% from the previous estimate of 5.3%, attributed to a higher base effect. This remains slightly below the Georgian government's expectation of a 5.2% economic growth rate by 2024.

The EBRD also released growth forecasts for other countries in its region, including a 1% increase for Ukraine, 1.5% increase for Azerbaijan and the Russian Federation, 6.5% growth for Armenia, and 5% growth for Kazakhstan.

Collectively, the EBRD anticipates a 2.4% growth in the economies of the countries in its region, marking a 0.2 percentage point improvement from the previous forecast.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.