Dollar Tree upgraded to buy as JPMorgan sees 'opportunity'

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Dollar Tree upgraded to buy as JPMorgan sees 'opportunity'
Credit: © Reuters.

Dollar Tree (NASDAQ: DLTR ) was lifted to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan in a note on Monday, with the firm raising its price target for the stock to $155 from $122 per share.

Analysts at JPMorgan said in the note covering the discount retail sector that following the bank's recent fieldwork, they see an "opportunity."

"Our wallet analysis points to a $10B headwind on consumer spending in 2024 for individuals under the age of 62 comprised of a $45B headwind from student loan repayment, $15B headwind from reduction in SNAP benefits, and $2B drag from tax refunds partially offset by a $51B tailwind from lower gas prices," the analysts wrote.

Focusing on DLTR, the JPMorgan team said the key takeaway from its recent access with CEO Dreiling was the company's confidence today in achieving FY26's $10+ EPS target.

"Importantly, our model reflects +18% EPS growth over the next 3 years (FY24- 26) to $9.75 in EPS in FY26 weighted ~85% to the Dollar Tree banner," the analysts added.

Meanwhile, JPMorgan believes the FDO store fleet optimization is changing the investment narrative to a potential "win-win ̇ catalyst path in FY24."

They see a larger total addressable market for the Dollar Tree banner, "doubling the concept's long-term store saturation using the Dollarama 'breaking the buck' playbook (= incremental Dollar Tree banner unit growth acceleration opportunity)."

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