By Aditya Raghunath
Investing.com -- Rating agency CRISIL Ltd. (NS: CRSL ) has said that if the second wave of COVID-19 cases peaks by June-end, India’s GDP growth could fall to 8.2% from its earlier projection of 11%.
If the second surge peaks by May-end, GDP growth could fall to 9.8%. However, CRISIL has said that if the second surge peaks by mid-May, the economy could still hit its original 11% projection. It added that the economy will return to pre-pandemic levels of growth by the September 2021 quarter.
The two biggest challenges for India are controlling the spread of infections and increasing vaccine rollout. India has the lowest rate of vaccinations among large economies.
“The intensity of the second wave of COVID-19 infections in India has come as a surprise and is haemorrhaging the country's healthcare infrastructure. That has made lockdowns and restrictions inevitable,” CRISIL said. Even though the government hasn’t announced any official lockdown, almost every state in India has some sort of restrictions when it comes to mobility.
CRISIL has added that around 10% of India’s workforce is most vulnerable because of the reliance on contract-based services but that the second wave would not be as severe on employment as the first one. According to a Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) report, 3.4 million salaried jobs were lost in April.
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With a PM expert in fudging reports, should we be surprised if all estimates and projections are beaten?Like 2