Cotton settled flat on profit booking; 2023/24 India production may dip 7.5%

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Cotton settled flat on profit booking; 2023/24 India production may dip 7.5%

The stability in Cottoncandy's price at 56700, despite a 7.5% anticipated drop in India's cotton production for 2023/24, reflects the impact of lower planted areas and El Nino weather conditions on productivity. The Cotton Association of India (CAI) projects an increase in imports to 2.2 million bales, compared to the previous year's 1.25 million. Meanwhile, the U.S. cotton balance sheet for 2023/24 indicates higher production and ending stocks, compensating for slightly lower consumption. 

Globally, the balance sheet shows decreased consumption but increased production and stocks. However, concerns arise as cotton production in north Maharashtra is expected to decline by 25% due to inadequate rainfall. The CAI's final estimate for the 2022-23 season pegs India's cotton production at 31.8 million bales, higher than its initial estimates but below the government's third advance estimate of 34.3 million bales. In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price dipped by -0.4% to 27006.65 Rupees, reflecting local market dynamics. 

From a technical standpoint, the market indicates long liquidation with a drop in open interest by -5.81% to settle at 81. Despite unchanged prices at 56700 Rupees, Cottoncandy finds support at 56560, with potential testing at 56420 levels. On the upside, resistance is expected at 56900, and a breakthrough could lead to a test of 57100.

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