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ConocoPhillips shares target raised to $148 on strong 3Q performance

Published 02-11-2024, 12:52 am
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On Friday, Susquehanna maintained a Positive rating on ConocoPhillips (NYSE: NYSE:COP) and increased the stock's price target to $148 from $144. The adjustment follows ConocoPhillips' third-quarter earnings report, which surpassed expectations in both production and earnings per share (EPS), largely attributed to robust performance in the Lower 48 states.

ConocoPhillips outperformed Susquehanna's forecasts with an adjusted EPS of $1.77, higher than the anticipated $1.62. Production also exceeded estimates, reaching 1,918 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (Mboe/d), which is 1% above the expected 1,890 Mboe/d.

Following this strong quarterly performance, the company has raised its full-year production guidance to a range of 1.94 to 1.95 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.

The company has also increased its synergy target from its acquisition of Marathon Oil (NYSE:MRO) to $1 billion, up from the previous $500 million. This upward revision is due to an approximate $500 million reduction in capital expenditures for the combined entity, as it requires fewer drilling rigs and fracking crews to achieve its growth targets.

ConocoPhillips remains committed to its shareholder return strategy, staying on course to distribute $9 billion to its shareholders within the current year. In line with this commitment, the company has announced an expansion of its share repurchase program, now authorizing up to $20 billion in buybacks. The company continues to pledge a minimum return of 30% of cash flow from operations to shareholders moving forward.

In other recent news, ConocoPhillips showcased a strong Q3 performance in its earnings call, exceeding production guidance with a 3% year-over-year increase and adjusted earnings of $1.78 per share. The company also revealed plans for growth, including a $9 billion return to shareholders in 2024, a $2 billion share repurchase for Q4, and a $20 billion increase in share repurchase authorization.

ConocoPhillips is also planning strategic acquisitions, such as the acquisition of Marathon Oil, which is expected to close this quarter with synergies doubling initial targets. The company's 2025 budget anticipates a capital expenditure of less than $13 billion, with low single-digit production growth.

ConocoPhillips is actively optimizing its asset portfolio, targeting $2 billion in non-core asset dispositions, and expects improvements with the Matterhorn pipeline. The company also looks forward to maintaining a 30% return on cash flow to shareholders.

These developments are part of ConocoPhillips's recent strategic and operational decisions, aiming to enhance shareholder value and position the company for future growth.

InvestingPro Insights

ConocoPhillips' strong performance and optimistic outlook are further supported by recent data from InvestingPro. The company's market capitalization stands at $127.2 billion, reflecting its significant presence in the oil and gas sector. With a P/E ratio of 12.2, ConocoPhillips appears to be trading at a reasonable valuation relative to its earnings, which could be attractive to value-oriented investors.

InvestingPro Tips highlight ConocoPhillips' strengths in the current market environment. The company is noted as a "Prominent player in the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry," which aligns with its strong production numbers and raised guidance. Additionally, ConocoPhillips "has maintained dividend payments for 54 consecutive years," demonstrating a long-standing commitment to shareholder returns, which is consistent with the company's announced $9 billion distribution plan and expanded share repurchase program.

The company's financial health is also noteworthy, with InvestingPro data showing a robust EBITDA of $25.02 billion for the last twelve months as of Q2 2024. This strong cash flow generation supports the company's ability to fund its shareholder return initiatives and potential future growth.

For investors seeking more comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers 8 additional tips for ConocoPhillips, providing deeper insights into the company's financial position and market performance.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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