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AIG stock target lifted to $87 on strong underwriting, EPS view

EditorLina Guerrero
Published 06-11-2024, 01:58 am
AIG
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On Tuesday, CFRA raised the price target on American International Group (NYSE:AIG) to $87 from $85, while maintaining a Buy rating on the shares. The adjustment reflects a valuation of AIG shares at 10.5 times the firm's 2026 operating earnings per share (EPS) estimate of $8.25, which is a decrease of $0.40, and 12.3 times the 2025 EPS estimate of $7.05, down $0.15 from the previous estimate. This valuation compares with a one-year average forward multiple of 11 times and a peer average of 13 times.

The analyst cited several reasons for the optimistic outlook, including a 6% increase in third-quarter net written premiums, with Commercial written premiums up 7% and Personal Lines increasing by 3%. Additionally, investment income for the quarter rose by 14%.

The third-quarter earnings per share of $1.23, which fell short of the analyst's estimate of $1.28 but surpassed the consensus view of $1.10, were also noted. The quarter's performance reflected the divestiture of Validus Re, but underlying results were seen as encouraging.

Looking ahead to 2024, CFRA anticipates it will be a transitional year for AIG as the company finalizes the sale or spin-off of CoreBridge Financial and focuses on becoming a pure play property-casualty insurer. This strategic shift, along with improving underwriting metrics, is expected to act as a catalyst for AIG shares, which are currently trading at 1x their September 30, 2024 book value of $73.90, to narrow the valuation gap with their peers.

In other recent news, American International Group (AIG) posted strong third-quarter results, surpassing Wall Street's expectations due to robust underwriting performance and increased investment returns.

The insurer reported a 6% rise in general insurance net premiums written, reaching $6.38 billion, and net investment income climbed 14% to $973 million. Despite these gains, AIG also reported higher catastrophe losses of $417 million for the quarter, primarily due to North American wind and hailstorms.

The company's general insurance accident year combined ratio, a key profitability indicator, was reported at 88.3% on an adjusted basis. AIG's adjusted earnings per share came in at $1.23, notably higher than the analyst consensus estimate of $1.10, as compiled by LSEG.

On the other hand, AIG continued to execute on its capital return plans, repurchasing $1.5 billion of common shares and paying $254 million in dividends during the quarter. These developments are part of the recent news surrounding the company, demonstrating its resilience amidst a challenging year for natural disasters, as noted by CEO Peter Zaffino.

InvestingPro Insights

To complement CFRA's analysis, recent data from InvestingPro offers additional perspective on AIG's financial position and market performance. The company's market capitalization stands at $47.99 billion, reflecting its significant presence in the insurance industry. AIG's revenue for the last twelve months as of Q2 2024 was $45.92 billion, with a notable revenue growth of 16.0% over the same period.

InvestingPro Tips highlight that AIG has maintained dividend payments for 12 consecutive years, which may appeal to income-focused investors. This is particularly relevant given the company's current dividend yield of 2.1%. Additionally, analysts predict that AIG will be profitable this year, aligning with CFRA's positive outlook on the company's future performance.

It's worth noting that AIG's management has been aggressively buying back shares, which could potentially support the stock price and enhance shareholder value. This strategy may be particularly effective as the company trades at a price-to-book ratio of 1.08, close to the book value mentioned in the CFRA report.

For investors seeking a more comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers 5 additional tips that could provide further insights into AIG's investment potential.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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