Turmeric prices declined by 0.18% to settle at ₹14,168, driven by news of increased sowing across major turmeric-producing regions. In Indonesia, dry weather has accelerated harvesting, adding to the global supply. However, the downside was limited due to tighter supplies in India and emerging buying interest from stockists. Farmers are holding back stocks in anticipation of further price increases, providing some support to the market. Despite this, the combination of rising acreage and weak export demand could pressure prices further. Turmeric sowing in key regions such as Erode, Maharashtra, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh has increased by 30-35% compared to last year.
An estimated 3.75-4 lakh hectares are under turmeric cultivation this year, up from 3-3.25 lakh hectares last year. Production in 2024 is expected to reach 70-75 lakh bags, while carryover stocks remain at zero, potentially limiting overall availability by 2025. Turmeric exports dropped by 19.52% during April-June 2024 compared to the same period last year, while imports surged by 485.4% during the same period, reflecting a significant shift in trade dynamics. The supply-demand balance may tighten further as export opportunities become volatile, especially with concerns about Bangladesh's market.
Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest dropping by 0.19% to 15,760 contracts. Support for turmeric is currently at ₹14,016, with a potential test of ₹13,864 if the decline continues. Resistance is expected at ₹14,266, and a break above could push prices towards ₹14,364.