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Kedia Advisory - India’s rice exports plunged nearly 60% in April–May 2025, primarily due to slack global demand and high inventories among buyers. Prices have dropped sharply, with 5% broken white rice hitting a five-year low of $384/tonne. Despite India lifting export curbs in late 2024, the global rice market remains oversupplied, depressing prices. Surplus production and record stocks have further pressured the market, and buyers, including key importers like Bangladesh, have slowed purchases. The Food Corporation of India’s large stocks and discounted sales have possibly signaled oversupply. Analysts now believe the USDA’s 24 million tonne export projection may be missed.
Key Highlights
# India’s rice exports dropped nearly 60% in April–May 2025.
# Global rice prices fell to multi-year lows on surplus stocks.
# Parboiled and white rice exports declined sharply from January highs.
# FCI’s record stock levels may have triggered market panic.
# Annual export target of 24 mt now appears unlikely to be met.
India’s rice exports have witnessed a steep fall in the first two months of FY 2025-26, plunging nearly 60% due to weak international demand and excessive buyer inventories. Prices have dropped to multi-year lows, with India’s 5% broken white rice currently quoted at just $384 per tonne free-on-board (f.o.b) — the lowest in five years. Parboiled rice isn’t faring any better, priced around $377 f.o.b.
This price performance comes despite India lifting its rice export restrictions in September 2024. Initially, this triggered a buying spree, with parboiled rice exports jumping from 4.35 lakh tonnes (lt) in September to 12.52 lt by January 2025. White rice saw a similar rise, peaking at 8.07 lt in November. However, by May 2025, shipments had declined drastically to 2.07 lt for parboiled and 2.92 lt for white rice, reflecting the market glut.
Trade experts attribute the fall to surplus global supply and bulging inventories among buyers. “There’s hardly any demand right now,” said M Madan Prakash of Rajathi Group. Supporting this, FCI’s stocks as of June 1 stood at 37.99 mt of rice and 32.26 mt of unmilled paddy — record levels. FCI’s offer of rice for ethanol production at ₹22.50/kg may have inadvertently signaled an oversupply to global markets.
Adding to the woes, countries like Bangladesh have reduced their purchases, and competing nations haven’t reported any export gains either. With demand stagnant and no signs of recovery, analysts now doubt India will meet the USDA’s projected export target of 24 million tonnes for the year.
Finally
India’s rice export outlook remains bleak as global oversupply and weak demand persist, keeping prices depressed and casting serious doubt on export targets for 2025.