Global wheat prices are forecast to face downward pressure in 2025 due to record production, despite tightening supplies providing short-term support. Analysts have revised CBOT wheat price forecasts lower, citing ample US stocks and bearish market sentiment. Global wheat production is expected to reach a record 793.2 million tonnes, but declining Russian and European output may tighten supplies further. The USDA projects global carryover stocks to hit a nine-year low at 258.8 million tonnes. Risks from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, weather anomalies like La Niña, and geopolitical trade tensions could influence prices. Analysts expect prices to strengthen in late 2025 as tightening supplies offset bearish market sentiment.
Key Highlights
# CBOT wheat prices revised down to $5.80 per bushel for 2025.
# Global wheat production forecast at a record 793.2 million tonnes.
# US ending stocks projected to rise 17% YoY to 815 million bushels.
# Russian wheat production estimated 10% lower at 81.5 million tonnes.
# Tightening global supplies expected to support prices in late 2025.
Global wheat prices are expected to remain under pressure in 2025, with record global production weighing heavily on the market. CBOT wheat prices have been revised downward to an annual average of $5.80 per bushel, as per BMI's latest forecast. The USDA reported a slight decline in the 2024-25 all-wheat season-average farm price to $5.55 per bushel. Ample US ending stocks, which are projected to rise 17% year-on-year to 815 million bushels, have further dampened market sentiment.
Supporting this price decline is a bearish stance among managed money participants, who held a net short position of 95,009 wheat contracts in December 2024. Analysts note that while global ending stocks are forecast to drop 3.6% year-on-year to their lowest since the 2015-16 season, sentiment remains pessimistic due to high US stocks and trade tensions.
Other key factors influencing the market include tightening Russian and European wheat supplies. Russia's harvest is expected to decline by over 10%, reducing ending stocks by 30% to 8.2 million tonnes. Similarly, European output is estimated to fall 9% year-on-year to less than 123 million tonnes due to adverse weather.
Despite these factors, analysts predict a stronger price trend in late 2025 as tightening supplies offset bearish sentiment. Risks from geopolitical issues, adverse weather conditions, and slower US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts remain potential game changers.
Finally
While record global wheat production pressures prices, tightening supplies and geopolitical risks may support gains later in 2025, with CBOT prices expected near $6/bushel.