The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised its global and U.S. oil demand forecasts for 2025, citing weaker economic activity in China and North America. Global oil demand is now expected to grow by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) to 104.3 million bpd in 2025, down 300,000 bpd from previous projections. U.S. oil demand for 2025 is forecast to rise to 20.5 million bpd, slightly below prior expectations. Additionally, the EIA lowered its U.S. oil production forecast for 2025 to 13.54 million bpd. Oil prices are also projected to be lower, with U.S. crude averaging $76.91 per barrel in 2024.
Key Highlights
# EIA cuts 2025 global oil demand forecast by 300,000 bpd.
# US oil demand to rise to 20.5 million bpd in 2025, slightly below expectations.
# Global oil demand forecast for 2024 reduced by 20,000 bpd.
# US crude oil production forecast lowered to 13.54 million bpd in 2025.
# Oil prices expected to average $76.91 per barrel in 2024, a 2.4% cut.
Oil prices have come under pressure after the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) slashed its demand forecasts for 2025. The EIA now expects global oil demand to increase by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) to reach 104.3 million bpd, which is 300,000 bpd below previous projections. Additionally, U.S. oil demand in 2025 is forecast to rise to 20.5 million bpd, slightly lower than the prior forecast of 20.6 million bpd.
Supporting these downward revisions, the EIA highlighted weakening economic activity in China and North America as key factors. China's declining imports and refinery runs have led to reduced expectations for this year, while concerns over industrial production and manufacturing growth in the U.S. and Canada are weighing on the 2025 outlook.
Other leading forecasters, such as the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC, remain divided on oil demand growth for 2024 and 2025. The IEA predicts a more modest demand increase of 950,000 bpd next year, while OPEC forecasts a stronger rise of 1.74 million bpd.
On the production side, the EIA also revised its U.S. oil output forecasts. The U.S. is now expected to produce 13.54 million bpd in 2025, down 1% from previous estimates. Oil prices are also likely to reflect this trend, with U.S. crude expected to average $76.91 per barrel in 2024, a reduction from earlier predictions.
Finally
Weaker economic activity in key regions has led the EIA to lower its demand and price forecasts for oil, signaling a potential slowdown in the market.