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Kedia Advisory - Crude oil prices surged by 1.97% to settle at ₹5,844, buoyed by rising geopolitical tensions and supportive macroeconomic cues. The sharp upmove followed comments by U.S. President Donald Trump regarding the repositioning of American personnel in the Middle East, which raised fears of potential supply disruptions due to escalating tensions with Iran. Additionally, renewed optimism in global trade after the U.S. and China reached a framework agreement to ease trade tensions helped boost sentiment for oil demand from the world’s top two consumers. On the economic front, softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data reinforced expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve as early as September.
A rate cut could stimulate economic growth and, in turn, support energy consumption. Furthermore, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed a larger-than-expected drop in crude oil inventories, with a drawdown of 3.644 million barrels versus an expected 2.5 million barrel decline. Looking ahead, the International Energy Agency (IEA) noted that global oil demand growth is expected to slow to 650,000 barrels per day for the rest of 2025 due to economic headwinds and rising EV adoption. Nevertheless, the IEA revised its full-year 2025 demand growth forecast upward to 740,000 bpd, citing improved economic expectations and lower oil prices aiding consumption.
Crude oil is in a short covering phase with a 1.66% drop in open interest, signaling profit booking. Immediate support is at ₹5,746, with deeper downside potential towards ₹5,648. Resistance lies at ₹5,900, and a breakout could see prices testing ₹5,956.