Crude oil prices surged by 2.15%, closing at 6,475, as investors grew concerned over a potential escalation in the Middle East that could disrupt crude supplies. President Joe Biden's remarks about discussions of an Israeli attack on Iranian oil facilities heightened fears of a broader conflict in the region. This speculation has raised concerns about potential retaliation from Iran, which could impact the global oil supply. Despite the concerns, OPEC's spare capacity could compensate for the loss of Iranian supply if Israel targets the country's oil infrastructure. Kazakhstan's largest oil output cuts under the OPEC+ agreement, due to scheduled maintenance at the Kashagan field in October, also contributed to the upward pressure on prices.
However, OPEC officials reassured markets, stating that global crude supplies remain unaffected by the ongoing unrest, with sufficient capacity to stabilize the market if necessary. In the U.S., crude oil inventories rose by 3.889 million barrels in the week ending September 27, 2024, against expectations of a 1.3 million barrel decline. Additionally, stocks at the Cushing delivery hub increased by 0.840 million barrels, and gasoline inventories climbed by 1.119 million barrels. On the flip side, distillate stockpiles, including diesel, dropped by 1.284 million barrels, slightly below the forecasted decrease.
On the technical side, crude oil is experiencing short covering, with open interest dropping by -2.82% to 14,153 contracts. Prices are currently supported at 6,305, and a break below could test 6,134. On the upside, resistance is seen at 6,571, and a move above that could drive prices to 6,666, indicating further potential volatility.