Crude oil prices declined by -3.26%, settling at 5,762, primarily driven by concerns over weak demand from China. Data showing low consumer inflation and decreasing factory prices in China underscored fears of a slowdown in the world's largest oil importer. The strengthening U.S. dollar, following President Trump’s re-election, further pressured oil prices, as it makes dollar-denominated commodities less appealing globally. Additionally, market participants are carefully watching the demand outlook for 2025 amid the potential impacts of Trump’s policies and ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran. With an expected oil surplus in 2025, key reports from OPEC, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), and the International Energy Agency this week will be closely scrutinized for further insights.
U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 2.149 million barrels for the week ending November 1, 2024, surpassing expectations of a 1.8 million barrel increase, according to the EIA Petroleum Status Report. Crude stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma, grew by 0.522 million barrels, following a previous rise of 0.681 million barrels. Additionally, gasoline stocks rose by 0.412 million barrels, defying predictions of a 1.2 million barrel decline, while distillate stockpiles increased by 2.947 million barrels, exceeding the anticipated 1 million barrel drop. The EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook revised its global oil demand forecast for 2025, anticipating a growth of 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) to 104.3 million bpd, which is 300,000 bpd below previous estimates. The report also adjusted U.S. oil production expectations slightly lower.
Technically, crude oil remains under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising by 9.59% to 13,442 contracts. Support is currently at 5,687, with a potential dip to 5,611 if broken. Resistance is now at 5,900, with a further move likely testing 6,037 if breached.