CottonCandy prices declined marginally by -0.09%, settling at ₹54,650, pressured by expectations of higher global cotton production in CY 2024-25. Global production is forecasted to rise by 1.2 million bales to 117.4 million bales, supported by increases in India and Argentina. However, India’s northern cotton-producing states—Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan—witnessed a 43% drop in kapas arrivals until November 30, 2024, compared to the same period last year. This has created raw material shortages for ginners and spinners, particularly in Punjab, even as farmers hold back supplies, anticipating higher prices. The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has maintained its cotton consumption estimate for 2024-25 at 313 lakh bales and pressing estimates at 302.25 lakh bales.
Imports are projected to rise to 25 lakh bales, a significant increase from the 15.20 lakh bales in the previous season. As of November 30, approximately 9 lakh bales have arrived at Indian ports. The closing stock for September 30, 2025, is estimated at 26.44 lakh bales, down from 30.19 lakh bales last year. Globally, U.S. cotton production is revised upward to 14.3 million bales, while world production is estimated to increase by 1.2 million bales due to higher outputs in India, Argentina, and Brazil. Consumption is raised by 570,000 bales, driven by increases in India, Pakistan, and Vietnam.
The market saw fresh selling, with open interest rising by 0.47% to 426 contracts while prices fell ₹50. Support is seen at ₹54,040, with a potential test of ₹53,420 on further downside. Resistance is likely at ₹55,640, and a break above this level could push prices to ₹56,620.