Cottoncandy fell 0.8% to ₹51,950 as the Cotton Association of India (CAI) revised crop projections upwards by 2 lakh bales to 304.25 lakh bales for the 2024-25 season. Higher output in Telangana (+6 lakh bales) contributed to this increase, although North India’s production is expected to decline by 3.5 lakh bales. The WASDE report also projected higher global production (117.4 million bales), adding to the bearish trend. However, a 43% decline in kapas arrivals in Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan has caused supply concerns. Some farmers are holding stocks, while ginners and spinners face shortages, especially in Punjab.
Total (EPA:TTEF) supplies till December-end stood at 176.04 lakh bales, including 133.85 lakh bales pressed, 12 lakh bales imported, and 30.19 lakh bales opening stock. Consumption has been 84 lakh bales, while exports reached 7 lakh bales, leaving December-end stocks at 85.04 lakh bales. CAI raised its consumption estimate by 2 lakh bales to 315 lakh bales due to higher demand. Meanwhile, cotton yarn prices in South India increased amid rising demand from garment industries and strong export orders, helping to limit further downside.
The market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest falling by 5.05% to 94. Support is at ₹51,840, with further downside to ₹51,730. Resistance is at ₹52,130, and a break above this level could push prices toward ₹52,310.