Cottoncandy prices dropped by 0.83% to ₹52,850, pressured by upward revisions in crop projections by the Cotton Association of India (CAI) for the 2024-25 season. The estimated cotton output has been increased by 2 lakh bales to 304.25 lakh bales of 170 kg each, driven by higher production in Telangana, where projections rose by 6 lakh bales. However, production in North India is expected to decline by 3.5 lakh bales due to lower kapas arrivals, which have dropped 43% compared to the previous year. The WASDE report also weighed on prices, projecting global cotton production at 117.4 million bales for 2024-25, a 1.2 million bales increase due to higher output in India and Argentina.
Despite the pressure from higher supply estimates, downside momentum was limited by strong demand from the garment industry, which has driven cotton yarn prices higher in South India. Exports are also expected to grow, supporting demand. As of December, total supplies stood at 176.04 lakh bales, including imports of 12 lakh bales and an opening stock of 30.19 lakh bales. Consumption during this period was 84 lakh bales, while exports were estimated at 7 lakh bales. The December-end stock is pegged at 85.04 lakh bales.
The market is experiencing long liquidation, with open interest dropping by 29.07% to 122 contracts. Cottoncandy prices are supported at ₹52,480, with a break below this level likely to test ₹52,110. Resistance is seen at ₹53,450, and a move above could test ₹54,050.