Copper prices edged higher by 0.47% to settle at ₹843.45, buoyed by easing U.S. tariffs and renewed optimism surrounding economic stimulus in China, the world’s largest copper consumer. Recent signs of resilience in China’s economy, including stronger-than-expected Q1 growth driven by firm consumption and industrial output, lifted investor sentiment. Hopes for additional stimulus measures further supported the copper market amid ongoing trade headwinds from the United States. Citi raised its three-month copper price forecast to $8,800 per tonne from $8,000, citing tariff relaxation, Chinese buying on dips, and tight scrap supply due to U.S. stockpiling.
However, the bank remains cautious over the medium term, anticipating slower consumption and manufacturing due to the 145% tariffs on Chinese goods. This has already led to a shift in refined copper flows from China to the U.S., reflected in China’s 1.4% year-on-year drop in March copper imports to 467,000 tonnes. Meanwhile, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported a global refined copper market deficit of 19,000 metric tons in January, slightly easing from December’s 22,000-ton deficit. Adjusted figures, including Chinese bonded warehouse inventories, show a smaller deficit of 17,000 metric tons in January.
On the technical front, copper is experiencing short covering, with open interest falling 10.1% to 3,856 contracts while prices rose ₹3.95. Immediate support is at ₹833.5, with further downside risk to ₹823.6. Resistance is seen at ₹849.3, and a breakout above could lead to testing ₹855.2.