Copper prices rose by 0.8% to settle at 859.55, driven by a weaker dollar and renewed optimism regarding stimulus from the Chinese government. China's October manufacturing data revealed a return to expansion for the first time in six months, with stronger export orders, signalling that recent economic support measures are starting to impact the economy positively. Market sentiment is further buoyed by the anticipation that China’s top legislative body, meeting from November 4-8, may introduce additional economic support measures. Despite earlier disappointment over the scale of China’s stimulus, the latest data has helped renew confidence in copper demand from the world’s largest consumer.
In supply news, Chile’s state-owned miner Codelco reported a 4.9% year-on-year decrease in copper output for January through September, highlighting ongoing supply challenges in one of the top-producing nations. Meanwhile, the global refined copper market posted a 54,000 metric ton surplus in August, slightly down from July's surplus, as per the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). Over the first eight months of the year, the surplus has increased significantly, reaching 535,000 metric tons, compared to 75,000 tons a year ago. This reflects slower demand growth relative to supply increases. China's imports of unwrought copper increased by 15.4% in September compared to August, reaching 479,000 metric tons, supported by seasonal demand and a positive consumption outlook.
On the technical side, copper is in fresh buying territory with open interest up by 2.26% to 7,832 contracts. Support is seen at 855.7, and a break below could lead to 851.7. Resistance is positioned at 862.5, with the potential for prices to reach 865.3 if this level is breached, suggesting potential for further upward momentum.