Copper prices increased by 0.85% to close at 847.8, supported by positive manufacturing data from China, which showed an expansion in October for the first time in six months. This turnaround in manufacturing activity, bolstered by improved export orders, indicates that recent stimulus measures are beginning to revitalize the economy. The market remains cautious, however, as traders await potential new measures from China's top legislative body, set to convene from November 4-8. Additionally, concerns surrounding the U.S. presidential election have kept some participants on the sidelines. On the supply side, Chile's state-owned Codelco reported a 4.9% year-on-year decline in its copper output, totalling 918,000 metric tons from January to September.
The global refined copper market displayed a surplus of 54,000 metric tons in August, down from a 73,000 metric tons surplus in July, according to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). For the first eight months of the year, the surplus reached 535,000 metric tons, compared to 75,000 metric tons in the same period last year. World refined copper output in August was 2.32 million metric tons, while consumption was 2.27 million metric tons. When adjusted for inventory changes in Chinese bonded warehouses, the August surplus stood at 42,000 metric tons, down from 63,000 metric tons in July. China's imports of unwrought copper increased to 479,000 metric tons in September, a 15.4% rise from August, reflecting stronger seasonal demand.
Technically, copper is experiencing short covering, evidenced by a 1.73% drop in open interest to 7,155 contracts as prices rose by 7.15 rupees. Current support is at 843.4, with further tests at 838.9, while resistance is anticipated at 850.7, with potential moves toward 853.5.