Copper prices rose by 0.58% to 852.7, driven by a positive shift in China’s October manufacturing activity, which expanded for the first time in six months. This improvement was attributed to recent economic support programs and a better export outlook nearing year-end. Despite these gains, market participants remain cautious about the scale of China’s stimulus measures and await potential new policies during the legislative meeting from Nov. 4-8. Global supply factors are also influencing copper prices. Chile’s state-owned miner, Codelco, reported a 4.9% year-on-year decline in copper output from January to September, reflecting challenges in one of the world’s largest copper producers.
Meanwhile, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported a global refined copper surplus of 54,000 metric tons in August, slightly lower than July's 73,000 metric tons. For the first eight months, the surplus reached 535,000 metric tons, driven by increased production and stable consumption. China’s copper import data further supports the bullish outlook. Imports of unwrought copper rose to 479,000 metric tons in September, up 15.4% from August, due to improving seasonal demand. Copper concentrate imports were also strong, totalling 2.44 million tons in September, an 8.9% increase year-on-year, indicating healthy industrial demand in China.
Technically, the copper market is experiencing fresh buying interest, with a 7.04% increase in open interest to 7,659 contracts, signalling trader optimism. Copper finds support at 848.5, with further support at 844.2, while resistance is expected around 855.8. If this resistance is breached, prices could test the 858.8 level, suggesting a solid upward trend amid supportive macroeconomic and supply factors.