Copper prices rose by 0.85% to 845.2, buoyed by reports that China, the top metals consumer, may approve a substantial fiscal stimulus package to bolster its economy. Speculation is mounting around a potential 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) extra debt issuance, with 6 trillion yuan targeted at mitigating local government debt risks and 4 trillion for land and property purchases. This ambitious package, expected to be reviewed by China’s top legislative body from Nov. 4-8, has renewed optimism about increased demand for industrial metals. Demand for copper has been under pressure from slowing global economic growth, particularly in China, although some sectors like solar and wind energy remain robust.
China's refined copper production in September rose slightly by 0.4% year-on-year to 1.14 million metric tons, with daily average output calculated at 38,000 tons. The global refined copper market displayed a surplus of 54,000 metric tons in August, down from 73,000 tons in July, indicating some improvement in market balance. For the year’s first eight months, however, the market held a significant 535,000 metric ton surplus, reflecting broader demand-supply imbalances. China’s imports of unwrought copper grew to 479,000 tons in September, a 15.4% increase from August, driven by improving seasonal demand. Year-to-date copper imports have risen by 2.6%, while copper concentrate imports are up by 3.7% from the prior year, totalling 21.06 million tons through September.
Technically, copper is witnessing short-covering, with open interest down by 5.75% to 7,264 contracts, suggesting some liquidation of positions. Immediate support is seen at 836.5, with a potential decline to 827.9 if breached. Resistance is anticipated at 851.2, and a move above this level could push prices towards 857.3.