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Aluminium Prices Rise Amid Ongoing Supply Disruptions in the Global Alumina Market

Published 08-11-2024, 03:41 pm
© Reuters.  Aluminium Prices Rise Amid Ongoing Supply Disruptions in the Global Alumina Market
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Aluminium prices rose by 2.77% to settle at 246.9, as supply disruptions in the global alumina market and tight bauxite availability constrained capacity growth. Environmental regulations in China’s Shanxi and Henan provinces have restricted bauxite mining since late 2023, and no substantial recovery is expected. China's aluminium smelting capacity increased slightly in 2024, reaching 43.51 million tons in September, supported by capacity expansions in Southwest China and additional production from Xinjiang. Demand for alumina has also risen, driven by smelters in Yunnan Province that cancelled planned winter cuts due to sufficient electricity supply.

Supply pressures intensified as Guinea, a major alumina exporter, halted bauxite exports from Guinea Alumina Corporation (GAC) about two weeks ago. Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) raised its 2025 aluminium price forecast to $2,700 per ton, anticipating stronger demand from China following stimulus measures. Global aluminium output for September increased by 1.3% year-on-year, totalling 6.007 million tons, according to the International Aluminium Institute. China’s aluminium exports surged, reaching 5.5 million tons in the first ten months of 2024, up 17% year-on-year National Bureau of Statistics reported daily output averaged 121,667 tons in September, slightly higher than August. State-backed research from Antaike estimated the industry’s profit at 2,379 yuan per ton in September, a 12.2% increase from the prior month. 

Technically, aluminium is under fresh buying momentum with open interest rising by 24.43% to 4,349 as prices climbed 6.65 rupees. Aluminium finds support at 242.9, with further support at 238.9, while resistance is seen at 249.8, with a potential move above leading to a test of 252.7.

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