Aluminium prices inched up by 0.04% to ₹252.1 as supply concerns continued to influence market sentiment. The European Commission proposed including Russian primary aluminium imports in its 16th package of sanctions, aiming to curb Moscow’s revenue sources. The proposed ban, which includes aluminium alloys, has a one-year phase-in period, with 275,000 metric tons exempted as "necessary" imports. Global primary aluminium output rose 3% year-on-year in December to 6.236 million tonnes, according to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI). Meanwhile, stocks at Japan’s three major ports increased 13.2% month-on-month to 323,600 metric tons.
On the supply front, China produced a record 44 million tons of aluminium in 2024, nearing its government-mandated cap of 45 million tons. China’s unwrought aluminium exports rose by 17% year-on-year in the first ten months of 2024, reaching nearly 5.5 million tons. Additionally, December's aluminium production in China increased by 4.2% year-on-year to 3.77 million metric tons, driven by new capacity in Xinjiang. However, daily output fell 1.7% from November. Rising costs led Chinese aluminium producers to report average losses of 687 yuan per ton, marking the first industry-wide losses in three years, as per Antaike research.
Technically, fresh buying was observed as open interest surged by 7.55% to 3,716 contracts, while prices gained ₹0.1. Aluminium finds support at ₹250.7, with further downside likely at ₹249.3. Resistance is at ₹253.4, and a breakout above could push prices toward ₹254.7.