Aluminium prices declined by 1.29%, closing at 240.25, as Donald Trump’s U.S. presidential victory raised concerns over potential reversals in climate-related policies, such as the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Trump has proposed rescinding unspent IRA funds, which support key electrification initiatives like EVs, solar, and wind energy, raising questions about demand for aluminium, a critical material in these sectors. The IRA had been expected to drive investments in materials like aluminium outside China, positioning the metal for significant demand growth. In the global market, supply disruptions emerged, as Guinea suspended exports from Guinea Alumina Corporation (GAC), a major supplier of alumina.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) raised its aluminium price forecast for 2025, citing an expected demand increase in China supported by new stimulus measures, revising the price projection to $2,700 per ton from $2,540. Additionally, global aluminium output in September rose by 1.3% year-on-year to 6.007 million tons, driven in part by increased production in China, which saw a 1.2% rise from the previous year. Improved hydropower availability in Yunnan province has also supported steady aluminium production.
From a technical perspective, the aluminium market is witnessing long liquidation, as evidenced by a 5.46% decline in open interest, settling at 3,495 contracts while prices dropped by 3.15 rupees. Aluminium is currently supported at 237.6, with further downside possible to 235 if this level is breached. Resistance is expected at 243, and a move above this level could lead to testing 245.8. This setup reflects ongoing uncertainty tied to policy shifts, supply constraints, and evolving demand dynamics.