Aluminium prices remained unchanged at ₹257.65 as market sentiment was weighed down by concerns over a global trade war following the U.S. decision to impose a 25% tariff on steel and aluminium imports. Analysts at Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) warned that aluminium could be significantly impacted due to its widespread use in transportation, construction, and packaging. Meanwhile, China’s aluminium production surged to a record 44 million metric tons in 2024, approaching the government-imposed cap of 45 million tons. U.S. aluminium premiums over the London Metal Exchange benchmark have surged 60% since Trump’s re-election in November 2024, highlighting growing trade tensions. In China, aluminium production in January 2025 rose 3.8% year-on-year but declined 0.3% month-on-month.
Operating capacity remained mostly stable, with minor production cuts of 20,000 metric tons per year in Shanxi. Global primary aluminium output in December increased 3% year-on-year to 6.236 million tons, according to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI). Aluminium stocks at major Japanese ports grew 13.2% to 323,600 metric tons in December. China’s unwrought aluminium exports reached 5.5 million tons in the first 10 months of 2024, marking a 17% year-on-year increase.
Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest dropping 13.64% to 3,033 while prices remained flat. Aluminium has support at ₹256.5, with a break below potentially testing ₹255.1. Resistance is seen at ₹258.9, and a move above this level could push prices toward ₹259.9.