The crypto market is enjoying the greens this week as both Bitcoin and Ether print 10 daily green candles in a row.
Ever since bottoming out on July 20, these crypto assets have been surging, with Bitcoin hitting $42,500, which was last seen on May 20, and Ether climbed to the June 16 level of about $2,484.
The total crypto market has now rallied to $1.68 trillion but is still down from $2.55 trillion in mid-May.
Looks like Wyckoff accumulation is confirmed. pic.twitter.com/FP1luarjhl
— Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) July 30, 2021
In the derivatives market, the open interest on Bitcoin futures is also going up, now at $14.25 billion, up from $11.27 from June 27 low. In terms of BTC, total OI is now at 341.57k, down from 375.74k BTC on July 17.
Interestingly, in the past 24 hours, FTX had the biggest increase of 15.29% in OI, now at 57.53k, followed by CME‘s 10.21% jump to 36.68k BTC. Leading crypto exchange Binance had one of the lowest increases of 4.71% to 80.91k BTC.
Less than a fortnight back, FTX had 42.5k BTC in OI compared to Binance’s 93.89k. This shows the shift in the market as FTX continues to get more popular and bigger while Binance faces regulatory scrutiny worldwide.
Also, during the recent short squeeze, more Binance traders got liquidated than FTX, much like always in spite of the former only pushing 1 liquidation per second and significantly underreporting the figures.
As for Ether, OI has recovered to $6.41 billion from $4.43 billion on June 26. In ETH terms, it is currently at 2.6 million ETH, while less than a fortnight back, it was 2.77 million. The latest increase in OI across the exchanges has been between 8% to 12%, except for CME, which only had a 2.36% rise in the past 24 hours, followed by Bybit’s 4.8%.
But FTX is clearly leading with its OI on Ether futures now at 3726k, while on July 17, it was 379.5k compared to Binance’s 626.92k, which is a long way to reach 730.97k about two weeks back.
The Macro While the market is clearly recovering sharply, crypto market participants aren't really sure if the bull run is continuing from the first half of the year after having a 50% to 75% drawdown in crypto prices. However, the confidence for the same is increasing.
But not only is the micro in favor, but the macro-environment also is not as dim with the US Federal Reserve discussing tapering.
Good luck with that tapering… My view is that growth is going to be much slower than expected in Q3 and the CB's will be looking to do more QE, not less. pic.twitter.com/ihTH4cYq2s
— Raoul Pal (@RaoulGMI) July 30, 2021
The thing is, tapering might not happen soon, with GDP figures coming in at 6.5%, only slightly better than Q1 and well below the economists’ expectation of 8.5%. Unemployment also increased month over month at 5.9%.
For the first time, volume at Fed’s reverse repurchase facility also topped $1 trillion as investors and financial institutions continued to pour cash into the overnight window. Demand for the reverse repo facility surged as the US debt ceiling looms, the Treasury department cuts down on its bill issuance, and financial firms struggle to find places to invest their excess cash.
Meanwhile, in the current unchartered territory, household savings rates are plummeting. “In the early days of covid, a major point of inconsistent economic data in increasing stimulus + QE/OMO was the massive savings everyone had. Now they’re back to lows,” noted Split Capital.
- Bitcoin BTC
- $ 41 592.15
- Ethereum ETH
- $ 2 459.25
- Tether USDT
- $ 1
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