On Tuesday, BofA Securities analyst updated the price target for ULTA Beauty (NASDAQ: ULTA), increasing it to $475 from the previous $460, while maintaining a Neutral stock rating. The revision follows ULTA Beauty's stronger-than-anticipated performance during the holiday season, leading to an upward adjustment in the company's fourth-quarter comparable sales (comps) and operating margin forecasts.
ULTA Beauty now anticipates its fourth-quarter comps to rise modestly, contrasting with its earlier guidance which projected a low single-digit decline. Moreover, the company expects its operating margin to surpass the high end of its previously issued guidance range of 11.6-12.4%. In response to these developments, the BofA analyst has adjusted the fourth-quarter comp estimate to a 1% increase from an initial 2% decrease.
The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for ULTA Beauty's fourth quarter has also been raised to $7.17, up from the prior estimate of $6.66. The new price objective of $475 is based on a 20 times price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the fiscal year 2025, reflecting higher estimates. Despite the positive preannouncement, the analyst expressed caution, noting that margins are still expected to be down by 200 basis points year-over-year in the fourth quarter and by 180 basis points for the fiscal year 2024.
The analyst's continued Neutral rating on ULTA Beauty's stock is due to the lack of clarity regarding the company's margin trajectory. This is particularly pertinent as fiscal year 2025 is anticipated to be a transition year with margins below the company's long-term targets.
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