On Tuesday, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) adjusted its stance on Mercedes-Benz (OTC:MBGAF) Group stock, downgrading the rating from Buy to Neutral and reducing the price target to €59.00 from the previous €63.00. The revision by analysts at Goldman Sachs reflects concerns over the future sales of the automaker's high-end luxury vehicles and its transition to electric vehicles (EVs).
The downgrade comes amid uncertainties about the development of the company's top-end luxury vehicle sales. Although Mercedes-Benz saw an increase in the share of total electric vehicles (TEVs) in the fourth quarter to 15.9% compared to the full year 2024 forecast of 14.2%, Goldman Sachs views meaningful TEV growth in 2025 as a challenge for the automaker.
Goldman Sachs acknowledges the distinct and positive luxury strategy of Mercedes-Benz but anticipates muted near-term developments in TEV sales and earnings. The firm projects a 40% year-over-year decline in the automaker's adjusted EBIT for the Cars segment in the fiscal year 2024, with an additional 14% decrease expected in 2025. A modest recovery is forecasted for 2026, driven by new product launches and cost-saving measures.
The Vans division is also expected to face earnings pressure as Mercedes-Benz moves towards an electrified portfolio. The broader electrification efforts and CO2 compliance are seen as significant challenges for the business in the years 2025 and 2026. Additionally, the earnings contribution from the Chinese market is not expected to improve in the near term.
Goldman Sachs' 2025 sector outlook indicates that future profit streams from battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and the Chinese market present secular concerns for the entire sector, including Mercedes-Benz. This outlook underpins the firm's decision to adjust its rating and price target for the automaker's stock.
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