Aluminum fell as China's October 2023 aluminum production reached 3.641 million mt

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Aluminum fell as China's October 2023 aluminum production reached 3.641 million mt

Aluminium prices experienced a decline of -0.64%, settling at 201.2, influenced by various factors in the global market. China, a significant player in the aluminium industry, reported a YoY increase of 6.7% in aluminium production for October 2023, reaching 3.641 million metric tons. This surge contributed to a global uptick in primary aluminium output, as data from the International Aluminium Institute revealed a 3.9% YoY rise to 6.116 million tonnes. China's aluminium trade dynamics presented a noteworthy shift, with imports rising by 173% YoY to 1.17 million metric tons in the January-October period. 

However, exports witnessed a decline of 41.19% YoY, resulting in a substantial increase in net imports to 1.06 million metric tons, marking a 347.33% YoY rise. In October alone, imports surged by 221.19% YoY and 7.9% MoM to 216,600 metric tons, while exports declined by 4.67% YoY and 91.29% MoM to 600 metric tons. Chinese regulators, including the People's Bank of China, are reportedly creating a "whitelist" for lending support to 50 property developers, indicating efforts to manage the property sector. In addition, smelters in Yunnan province initiated cuts totalling 1.15 million tons of capacity in response to power curbs expected to last until April. 

In the technical landscape, aluminium is currently undergoing fresh selling, with a 6.82% increase in open interest, settling at 3883. Support is identified at 200.5, and a breach below could test 199.7 levels. Conversely, resistance is expected at 202.5, and a breakthrough could lead to prices testing 203.7.

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