Alcoa Misses Q3 EPS by 52c

Alcoa (AA) reported Q3 EPS of ($0.33), $0.52 worse than the analyst estimate of $0.19. Revenue for the quarter came in at $2.85 billion versus the consensus estimate of $3.01 billion.

2022 Outlook

The Company expects total Aluminum segment shipments to remain unchanged from the prior projection, ranging between 2.5 and 2.6 million metric tons in 2022.

In Alumina, the Company has decreased its 2022 projection for shipments to range between 13.1 and 13.3 million metric tons, a reduction of 0.5 million metric tons from the prior projection primarily due to the reduced production at the San Ciprián refinery and lower shipments from the Australian refineries.

In Bauxite, the Company has decreased its 2022 projection for annual bauxite shipments to range between 43.0 and 44.0 million dry metric tons, a decrease of 1 million dry metric tons from the prior projection due to lower demand from the Australian refineries.

For the fourth quarter of 2022, Alcoa expects higher sequential profitability in the Bauxite segment with increased third-party shipments.

In Alumina, the Company anticipates lower energy costs for the San Ciprián refinery during the fourth quarter. Additionally, benefits of the San Ciprián curtailment are expected to offset the impact of lower bauxite quality in Australia and higher raw materials costs. In the Aluminum segment, higher raw materials costs, lower Warrick power plant sales, and lower value add product premiums are expected to be offset by lower energy costs at the Lista smelter.

Additionally, the Norwegian government recently issued a budget proposal that sets a floor for the carbon dioxide compensation scheme to be paid in 2023 based on 2022 power purchased. If approved by Parliament, the Company would record an adjustment of approximately $25 million in the fourth quarter to reverse amounts accrued in cost of goods sold for 2022 credits earned through September 30, 2022. The total impact of this budget proposal on the Company’s full year results would be approximately $35 million.

Based on current alumina and aluminum market conditions, the Company expects fourth quarter tax expense to approximate $50 million to $60 million, which may vary with market conditions and jurisdictional profitability.